The future development trend of new energy vehicles

 Xu Biao, chief strategy researcher of Huatai Securities Research Institute, said that environmental protection is the only optimistic direction of cross-year strategy. GuotaiJunan also emphasized in the research report that the big trend has come, and reiterated that environmental protection is one of its very promising theme investment opportunities in 2015. In the general environment where the public and the market have high hopes for energy conservation and environmental protection issues, Haitong Securities first launched the new energy vehicle sector, thinking that environmental protection is the cure for the problem, and new energy is the cure. The market's enthusiasm for the entire new energy sector has been catalyzed, from stock price flexibility In view, electric vehicles> photovoltaic> wind power.

        From less than 10,000 in 2012 to 20,000 in 2013 and 74,000 in 2014, the development speed of new energy vehicles in China is obvious to all. However, of the 23 million total car sales in China, 74,000 are minimal. A rough estimate is that if the goal of keeping 5 million vehicles in 2020 is to be achieved, the annual sales growth rate of China's new energy vehicles will remain at nearly 100%. The promotion of new energy vehicles has a long way to go, and there are still many problems to be solved. Will the market really explode in 2015? How long can the new energy vehicle concept be hot? These are issues that investors have to care about.

Policy reliance on obvious vehicle environment needs to be improved

       At present, the promotion of new energy vehicles has obvious policy dependence, which was particularly prominent in the second half of 2014. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, after the introduction of the new energy vehicle purchase-free tax policy The average monthly production in September-December 2014 exceeded 13,000 vehicles, while the average monthly production in January-August was less than 4,000 vehicles. Users' concerns about charging facilities are now the bottleneck restricting the development of new energy vehicles. Miao Wei, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, expressed his confidence on the market on March 5. He proposed to increase the infrastructure for charging facilities from this year. He also hopes that the pilot policies at all levels will increase the work in this area and let Consumers can buy cars and electricity.
        Liu Chongxi, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and deputy general manager of China Automotive Industry Engineering Corporation, brought a "Proposal on Increasing the Construction of Charging and Exchange Infrastructure and Promoting the Application of New Energy Vehicle Market" for the two sessions this year. He suggested that the construction of charging and replacement infrastructure should be increased to promote the application of the new energy vehicle market, including supporting the traditional power supply of the State Grid, China Southern Power Grid and other state-owned enterprises. Central enterprises participate in the construction of charging and swapping infrastructure. At the same time, private capital should also be encouraged to enter infrastructure construction, regulations should be formulated to protect their rights and interests, and fiscal subsidies for charging and replacing infrastructure construction should be increased to reduce or exempt taxes.

Whether pure electric power can't bypass hybrid power in the future
        At present, the state focuses on supporting pure electric vehicles, but there are also doubts in the industry. It is believed that in the development of new energy vehicles, hybrid power is a way to go. At the two sessions this year, Zhong Faping, chairman of the National People's Congress, chairman of Keliyuan, and Jing Zhu, chairman of the Haima Group, all proposed to vigorously develop hybrid vehicles. After deep hybrid and plug-in hybrid technologies, they will eventually transition to electric vehicles or fuel cell vehicles. However, a comprehensive analysis of China's energy structure and the current status of foreign developments shows that hybrid vehicles are unlikely to usher in explosive development opportunities. Adhering to the pure electric route is China's established national policy and long-term strategy. If China learns Japan to take the hybrid route, it can't get around the barriers of technology patents at all, it will be controlled by people from the source, and it is difficult to achieve independent development. The pure electric route China and Japan, Europe and the United States and other developed countries are on the same starting line. Although there are still many technical and market problems, new energy vehicles such as BYD, JAC and SAIC have begun to gradually open up local protectionism. Fence, China's pure electric vehicle development is slowly maturing. In the current development process of pure electric vehicle technology, it is urgent to solve the battery problem. The members of the CPPCC in the automobile industry unanimously expressed this view: It is not difficult for new energy vehicles to make cars, and it is difficult to make batteries. At present, the cost of new energy vehicle batteries is high, and they cannot meet the market needs in terms of battery life, safety, and charging time. Consumers have these concerns about whether to choose new energy vehicles. Therefore, once the price subsidies are lost, they will not be sold. Supported by preferential policies, it is difficult to increase sales of new energy vehicles. Whether battery technology can make a breakthrough is the fundamental question that determines the development of new energy vehicles. In order to accelerate the pace of battery research and development, CPPCC members recommended that the country appropriately adjust the focus of policy subsidies. At present, the subsidy direction of new energy vehicles lies in vehicle manufacturing enterprises, while ignoring battery manufacturing enterprises. In view of the key crux of the development of new energy vehicles, the state should provide more funds to encourage these battery manufacturing companies to carry out scientific and technological research and development.

The market demand for micro-electric vehicles is urgently needed

        . The four-wheel pure electric vehicle with a maximum standard speed of less than 80 kilometers per hour and a short cruising range is called a micro-electric vehicle in the industry. Due to cheap prices and convenient parking, sales of micro electric vehicles have grown significantly in recent years, especially in third- and fourth-tier cities. However, micro electric vehicles have always had the problem of missing standards and no entry threshold. At the two sessions of the current session, delegates' proposals on micro-electric vehicles have increased significantly compared with previous years, and are more comprehensive.
        Zhang Tianren, deputy of the National People's Congress and chairman of Tianneng Group, has been insisting on the proposal to develop mini electric vehicles for three consecutive years. This year he proposed that, in response to the appropriate liberalization policy for micro-electric vehicles, implement the management principle of “strict product access, and wide enterprise access”, and include micro-electric vehicles in China ’s road traffic planning, include legal vehicles, and allow Micro electric vehicles that meet the standards are listed on the road. Liu Yifa, chairman of Shandong Shifeng Group, proposed in the proposal to encourage the development of small electric vehicles as "national vehicles" and manage them with clear standards. The micro electric vehicle market needs to be regulated urgently, and this point of view in the industry is consistent. However, with the improvement of people's living standards and the continuous exploration of luxury brands, joint venture brand models, prices, and channels, it seems unlikely that micro electric vehicles will develop into "national cars" in the next few decades. Where to go for micro electric vehicles is still to be studied.

New energy bus promotion is relatively easy. Sales continue to soar

        . Although the promotion of new energy vehicles in the private sector is determined, it is difficult and impatient. In comparison, promotion in the field of public transportation is easier. In 2014, with the overall decline in the bus industry, new energy buses rose against the market, and a total of 18,637 new energy buses were sold throughout the year, an increase of 80.54% year-on-year. According to She Zhenqing, deputy secretary-general of the China Highway Society Bus Branch, the sales of new energy buses will double in 2015.
         GuotaiJunan said that we speculate that the government will increase investment in public transportation, especially to accelerate the substitution of new energy buses for traditional buses, and to promote the rapid development of new energy taxis and rail transit. Demand for new energy buses in the bus industry continues to grow with increased certainty, and the valuation of the bus and new energy bus supporting industries has been improved. In the traditional vehicle field, the supervision of new fuel consumption standards continues to increase, and related punishment measures will also be implemented. OEMs accelerate the deployment of technologies such as turbocharging and engine start-stop to reduce fuel consumption.

Apple and other giants disrupt the concept of new energy vehicles will continue to be hot

       Although there are still many problems to be solved on the road of development, it is certain that the concept of new energy vehicles will continue to heat up. In 2014, the "Tesla effect" triggered the full launch of "Tesla concept stocks" such as new energy vehicles and lithium batteries in the a-share market, which showed the enthusiasm of the capital market for the new energy vehicle sector. Recently, although Tesla's stock price has fallen sharply and its sales in China have been poor, the new energy vehicle market has never been short of topics. In recent days, rumors that it giant Apple will build electric vehicles have been hotly discussed. According to a report on the Swiss website apfelblog, the word "vehicles" appeared in a list of future project plans submitted by Apple to a local legal agency. In other words, at least in the Swiss region, Apple has plans to launch automotive products. The media speculates that Apple has already set up a car development team and set up a secret research laboratory. Applecar will be available in 2020 at the latest.
        For Tesla and other car companies that are vigorously developing electric vehicles, the news of Apple making cars is not necessarily a bad thing. Renault Nissan ceo Carlos Ghosn welcomed Apple's car making. He said in an interview recently: "If Apple decides to build a car, this is obviously good news for us." Apple's joining will undoubtedly speed up electric vehicles in all The popularity of the world is a good thing for all electric vehicle manufacturers.